What we know about the Cowboys' draft plans (2024)

NOTE: For updates from the third day of the NFL Draft, go here.

The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft began with a quarterback and ended with a wide receiver. Fitting for a night that was all about the offenses.

With their first No. 1 pick in 77 years, the Chicago Bears selected USC quarterback Caleb Williams, hoping to finally find their franchise QB. Williams set off a record run of six quarterbacks over the first 12 picks, including Jayden Daniels (Commanders, No. 2), Drake Maye (Patriots, No. 3), Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons, No. 8), J.J. McCarthy (Vikings, No. 10) and Bo Nix (Broncos, No. 12).

A record 23 offensive players were taken over 32 picks, including seven wide receivers. The first defender did not come off the board until No. 25.

The full first-round results:

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
7. Tennessee Titans: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
8. Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr, QB, Washington
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
10. Minnesota Vikings (from N.Y. Jets): J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
11. New York Jets (from Minnesota): Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
12. Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
14. New Orleans Saints: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
15. Indianapolis Colts: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
16. Seattle Seahawks: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
17. Minnesota Vikings (from Jacksonville): Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
21. Miami Dolphins: Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
23. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Minnesota through Cleveland and Houston): Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
24. Detroit Lions (from Dallas): Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
25. Green Bay Packers: Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston): Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri
28. Kansas City Chiefs (from Buffalo): Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
29. Dallas Cowboys (from Detroit): Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
30. Baltimore Ravens: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
31. San Francisco 49ers: Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
32. Carolina Panthers (from Buffalo through Kansas City): Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina

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The Cowboys enter the draft with their first selection at No. 24 overall. If everything goes according to plan, they won’t select a player with that slot.

“I’ll say this,” Cowboys owner and GM Jerry Jones said. “It’s very likely to have an opportunity to (trade down to get more picks).”

Jones added the usual caveats — evaluating which players went off the board early and how they grade the players left on the board, along with weighing what they’d be getting back in a trade. The Cowboys need more darts to throw at the board this year, particularly in the middle of the draft, because of how many positions require help. They lost one of those mid-draft picks last summer when they traded their fourth-round pick for quarterback Trey Lance.

What the Cowboys’ board looks like will vary from the other 31 teams — let alone from the many public rankings outside the walls of NFL teams. This year’s first-round pick not only needs to be a hit, but he needs to be a Day 1 starter. The Cowboys can’t afford a 2023 situation of first-rounder Mazi Smith struggling all year and the Cowboys explaining it by preaching patience because the transition to the pros takes time (as true as that may be). This year, they haven’t afforded themselves that margin for error. If the Cowboys believe that guy is there at No. 24, and may not be there at, say, No. 29, there will need to be an on-the-fly risk assessment of how to proceed.

“I’m not trying to be cute there,” Jerry Jones said. “Obviously we’d like to have some mid-round picks. But by the same token, Micah Parsons might be sitting there with that pick. Now, do you want to go for some more picks or do you want to snag him?”

Ironically, Parsons was sitting there at the Cowboys’ original slot at No. 10 in 2021 and they chose to trade back two spots to add a third-rounder instead of turning in the card at No. 10. It worked out, the Cowboys selected Parsons at No. 12 and enjoyed the benefit of the extra third-round selection. That’s the sort of result they’ll be hoping for Thursday.

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Here's everything you need to know about the New York Jets entering Thursday's draft:

• New York Jets 2024 NFL Draft guide: Number of picks, predictions and key needs
• Jets NFL Draft big board: Top prospects to watch at No. 10 and in all 7 rounds
• Jets 7-round NFL mock draft: Rome Odunze, Brandon Coleman fill offensive holes

So, how’d everyone do?

It’s still too early to fully grade the 2023 NFL Draft class. However, with a year’s worth of evidence under our belts, we can do our best to redraft the first round. Let’s take a look at how last year’s Round 1 might go today and which teams hit home runs a year ago.

To keep things simple, we’ve limited any pick movement to pre-draft transactions. Trades like the Panthers’ jump to No. 1 and the Jets/Packers Aaron Rodgers deal that included a Round 1 pick swap are taken into account; the Texans–Cardinals deal at No. 3 and other shifts that occurred during Round 1 are not.

The new top 10:

1. Carolina Panthers: QB C.J. Stroud
2. Houston Texans: QB Bryce Young
3. Arizona Cardinals: Edge Will Anderson Jr.
4. Indianapolis Colts: Quarterback Anthony Richardson
5. Seattle Seahawks: DT Jalen Carter
6. Detroit Lions: RB Jahmyr Gibbs
7. Las Vegas Raiders: CB Devon Witherspoon
8. Atlanta Falcons: RB Bijan Robinson
9. Chicago Bears: WR Puka Nacua
10. Philadelphia Eagles: TE Sam LaPorta

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Here's everything you need to know about the Buffalo Bills entering Thursday's draft:

• Buffalo Bills NFL Draft 2024 guide: Picks, predictions and key needs
• Bills NFL Draft Big Board: 56 prospects to consider and how they fit
• 11 thoughts on the Buffalo Bills entering the 2024 NFL Draft

Once a year, every year, the ground beneath the football world moves.

Welcome back to the NFL Draft.

The 2024 NFL Draft, live from Detroit, kicks off Thursday night with one of the best and deepest quarterback classes we’ve seen in years. But that’s not all. Not even close. This is a talent-rich draft at a number of positions, and trade rumors have been rampant for months. Will we see four quarterbacks selected in the first four picks? Who’s going No. 1? Which teams are going to trade? Who’s going to stand pat?

Let’s get you caught up.

The Chargers have needs all over. Yes, they have the franchise quarterback with a new GM and new head coach, but that’s about it. They are clearly in transition, and because of their tight salary cap situation, this is their chance to accumulate players.

The Broncos, Raiders, and Vikings have all called to inquire about a possible trade. My understanding is the Chargers are listening, but their price is much bigger than what it costs to rent a parking space for Jim Harbaugh’s new RV.

The University of Michigan’s success under Harbaugh was tied to its ability to recruit and find good offensive linemen. He knows how important the line of protection is for the QB and the team’s overall success. The Chargers will have options at No. 5, but teams are mocking them to go offensive line.

The person taking calls is in Arizona at No. 4 and sitting pretty with all options in the Cardinals’ control. General manager Monti Ossenfort is no stranger to trading back from the top of the draft, having moved out of No. 3 in 2023, and it looks like he will have another great opportunity for a similar move.

A league source said if the Cardinals do in fact trade down, they don’t want to move too far, so you can almost guarantee they will be coming back up (as they also did last year). If they don’t get the deal they want, the team is comfortable with picking the best wide receiver on the board.

More on what I'm hearing.

With the 2024 NFL Draft approaching, betting markets can indicate how the picks may play out because they’re efficient and pretty smart. Bettors with inside information can place large wagers on markets and move the numbers significantly. Want a good example? Caleb Williams is now -10000 (bet $10,000 to win $100) to be selected first overall.

Insiders can also shift betting markets in a second. But sharp bettors love betting on the draft because it is easier to project a pick than a team beating another team, as variance and luck play a huge factor in games.

We’ll use betting odds to analyze the top 10. Predicting the NFL Draft is nearly impossible, especially when one player getting picked can change the entire board. But using data to see how people are betting on the draft makes it interesting to compare to how NFL Draft experts see the best players and team needs.

All implied probability will remove the vig from the betting market to give a more accurate probability chance that the player is drafted at that position. Crowd-sourced odds are via BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365.

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Most NFL teams’ draft boards are 125 or 150 players deep — some smaller, maybe a few larger. Each front office has its own criteria at certain positions that will eliminate a lot of players from consideration.

Without having a specific scheme or culture, compiling a top-300 draft board is definitely a flawed exercise. But it is interesting to stack the players based on general draft grades (from “The Beast”) to see who makes the cut.

Our top 10:

1. USC QB Caleb Williams
2. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
3. LSU WR Malik Nabers
4. North Carolina QB Drake Maye
5. Notre Dame OT Joe Alt
6. Washington WR Rome Odunze
7. Georgia TE Brock Bowers
8. LSU QB Jayden Daniels
9. Washington OG Troy Fautanu
10. Alabama CB Terrion Arnold

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First-year Patriots coach Jerod Mayo has almost begged for patience this offseason while owner Robert Kraft has publicly and privately shared that he wants a QB in this draft. The Patriots are under a new regime and are about to make one of the most important picks in franchise history at No. 3. (If this was still Bill Belichick running the Patriots, I’m told he would probably trade down and get more picks — see the Texans — but this is not those Patriots anymore.)

Though team officials are open to listening to trade offers, league sources say no real offer has come New England’s way, with only “scenarios” being discussed. Teams like the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders were told it would take significant draft capital for New England to trade out of its spot. With no deal in place right now, the Patriots are expected to stick and pick at No. 3.

A longtime league executive says this is a more involved ownership, with a group of scouts presenting the information and a head coach and general manager charged with filling a depleted roster. The team has yet to award the title of general manager to Eliot Wolf, who is running point, and it has shifted to a more collaborative process overseen by Jonathan Kraft. Ownership is allowing the football decision-makers to make the calls while keeping open a constant line of communication. But make no mistake, the Krafts know everything that is going on, as they should.

Two more things to note:

• If the Patriots land on a deal to trade out of No. 3, I fully expect them to move back up to grab a QB. Bottom line, I anticipate them coming out of this draft with a top QB. It’s also worth noting the Patriots don’t mind starting this season with Jacoby Brissett before handing the keys to the new QB when he is ready.
• Teams are expecting that if the Patriots make a trade, they won’t do the deal until they see who Washington is taking at QB.

More on what I'm hearing.

The flip to the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner began in early March, soon after Washington native Caleb Williams moved into essentially lock territory as the No. 1 overall selection by the Chicago Bears. The reasons for putting Jayden Daniels at No. 2 several weeks ago remain (unless last week’s local quarterback outing gave Washington a reason to look elsewhere). The 2023 production — 40 touchdown passes, four interceptions, 3,812 passing yards and 1,134 rushing yards — demonstrated unbelievable improvement.

The 6-foot-3 quarterback has the size to work from the pocket, and “his dazzling run skills make him a problem for defenses,” The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote in his NFL Draft guide. The high pressure-to-sack rate is concerning, and the 210-pounder must become better at taking on thumping hits. There are compelling cases for Drake Maye, including familiarity with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s “Air Raid” scheme, and J.J. McCarthy (highly efficient, clutch throws). Brugler is among several public evaluators who prefer Maye over Daniels.

If general manager Adam Peters isn’t as concerned about purported mechanical flaws, covets a more traditional pocket passer who can move, and is fine with a potential redshirt rookie season, Maye is the choice. Should the organization seek an experienced (53 college starts) dual-threat quarterback who stresses defenses on every play, then get ready to buy those Daniels jerseys.

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Ted Phillips didn’t mean to do it.

He didn’t get on that Zoom call with the Chicago Bears beat writers in January 2021 planning to condense the charter franchise’s long-running identity crisis with a pithy, viral quote that would haunt him for the rest of his days as the embattled Bears president.

But he said it. And it was perfect.

“Have we gotten the quarterback situation completely right? No,” Phillips said after an 8-8 season in 2020. “Have we won enough games? No. Everything else is there.”

That about it sums it up, doesn’t it?

For decades, Chicago’s quarterback issues have led to a lot of losing seasons for the Bears. Starting in 1966 (the first year of the Super Bowl era), the Bears have had 32 losing campaigns compared to 19 winning ones.

The list of starting quarterbacks over that time would make a Cleveland Browns fan blush. On Thursday, USC’s Caleb Williams will add his name to the organization’s tortured history and, like those who have come before him, promises to be different. But he is different. He’s going to be a No. 1 overall pick. He was the consensus top QB in college football. He can be The One instead of another one.

Chicago has heard it before.

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After months of building the hype with speculation and opinions from around the league, the moment we’ve anxiously awaited has finally arrived. The 2024 NFL Draft officially begins Thursday in Detroit at 8 p.m. ET.

For one last time before things kick off, our NFL reporters gathered for a virtual mock draft to play the role of general manager and select players for their respective teams. While the top quarterbacks expectedly flew off the board early, quite a few of our reporters made first-round trades to grab the prospects they coveted most. Here’s how it all went down. (Trades are noted with an asterisk.)

The top 10:

1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, USC QB
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, LSU QB
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, North Carolina QB
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State WR
5. Minnesota Vikings (via Chargers*): J.J. McCarthy, Michigan QB
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, LSU WR
7. Buffalo Bills (via Titans*): Rome Odunze, Washington WR
8. New Orleans Saints (via Falcons*): Joe Alt, Notre Dame OT
9. Chicago Bears: Brock Bowers, Georgia TE
10. New York Jets: Brian Thomas Jr., LSU WR

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I don’t remember who first referred to it as “The Beast,” but I use that moniker as motivation to make sure this annual primer lives up to the nickname — and I don’t think I’ve let you down this year.

Every NFL prospect is a puzzle. And it is a scout’s job to find the puzzle pieces to create as clear a picture of each player as possible. Those puzzle pieces include everything from the player’s physical traits to his mental makeup to the details of his upbringing — and everything in between.

That’s precisely how I attack this draft guide. Over the last 18 months, I’ve collected as many puzzle pieces as I could dig up, through countless hours of tape study and conversations with prospects, scouts and other sources.

With NFL-verified testing information for more than 1,900 prospects and tons of background information and analysis on hundreds of those players, I hope everyone views “The Beast” as the most comprehensive resource guide out there for the 2024 NFL Draft.

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Here's the full order of draft picks for Thursday's first round.

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina)
2. Washington Commanders
3. New England Patriots
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Los Angeles Chargers
6. New York Giants
7. Tennessee Titans
8. Atlanta Falcons
9. Chicago Bears
10. New York Jets
11. Minnesota Vikings
12. Denver Broncos
13. Las Vegas Raiders
14. New Orleans Saints
15. Indianapolis Colts
16. Seattle Seahawks
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
18. Cincinnati Bengals
19. Los Angeles Rams
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
21. Miami Dolphins
22. Philadelphia Eagles
23. Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland via Houston)
24. Dallas Cowboys
25. Green Bay Packers
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
27. Arizona Cardinals (from Houston)
28. Buffalo Bills
29. Detroit Lions
30. Baltimore Ravens
31. San Francisco 49ers
32. Kansas City Chiefs

For the full seven-round draft order, continue reading.

After months of mock drafts, scouting and speculation, the 2024 NFL Draft is here. The Chicago Bears are on the clock, and their pick shouldn't be a surprise: They are expected to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams, the only quarterback they brought in for a visit, with the No. 1 pick.

The intrigue will begin at No. 2, where the Washington Commanders could choose between two other quarterbacks — LSU's Jayden Daniels or North Carolina's Drake Maye. The New England Patriots, right behind Washington at No. 3, might also draft their quarterback of the future.

The Athletic's draft experts are here to guide you throughout the night. Follow along for the latest news, trade rumors and prospect analysis. Below, Dane Brugler, Robert Mays and Nate Tice are breaking things down in real time live from Detroit.

Pre-draft reading

• 'The Beast': Dane Brugler's prospect rankings and scouting reports
• Final 2024 NFL mock draft by Dane Brugler: Caleb Williams No. 1, five QBs in top 13
• An NFL Draft guide for every team

The draft will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN Deportes and NFL Network.

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